I spent some time over the past couple of years working on technology to replace passwords along with a lot of other folks (LaunchKey, Clef, Nexiden, Google Authenticator, SQRL, Mozilla Persona, oneID, etc. – the full list is sadly much longer than this). These ideas each have their technical merits and some get quite a bit of fanfare on their introduction to the market. However, I've personally reached the conclusion that none of these approaches are ever going to succeed in replacing the password with some nifty new authentication mechanism. It's not that there's no desire for a good solution nor that one can't be built. It's a much more fundamental problem: market inertia.
Rome Wasn't Built in a Day
The first thing to recognize is that the username and password problem isn't and will never be a product oriented problem – its nature is that it is an inherent feature of other products: applications, frameworks and operating systems. It's like alternative file browser software for your desktop OS. Sure, you can build it, but it's not going to be easy to accomplish and the operating system vendors can quickly react to whatever your value proposition is. Compounding the situation is the wide adoption and usage of passwords, the amount of books and training material about them and the large volume of training and experience so many developers and users have with them.
The moment you start looking at the problem this way you begin to realize the enormity of the task a new product in this space faces. How do you build a product that can create new standards, prompt people to write new books about the techniques and convert developers to using a new product when it is unlikely to ever successfully be adopted by enough applications, frameworks and operating systems to justify it?
It's a bit like throwing a pebble into a large pond and expecting anything more than tiny ripples to come from it before it quickly disappears below the surface.
You might say "but wait – isn't this really just the chicken and egg problem?". I.e. if you could only convince a critical mass of users and providers to adopt a new system, the product would surely succeed, right? My contention is that no, this is a different and additional problem. You could have the niftiest product in the world, get a significant amount of users and sites to adopt it and would still face this market inertia problem.
So if the problem is nearly intractable from a product development perspective, what is the answer? Is this as good as it gets?
The Future is Now
I believe we need to stop trying to get rid of the password and instead work with the market inertia to get the password to evolve into a better direction.
So, does that mean password managers are the answer? I contend that password managers are not the answer but password management is. In other words, password managers as a product market are a dead-end for the same reasons explained above. However, password management as a feature of applications, frameworks and operating systems is the future. Think LastPass versus iCloud Keychain. When your competitor controls the playing field you are competing on you've already lost – you just don't know it yet.
So, what will password management of the future look like? Here's how I think the password will evolve:
- Passwords of the future will no longer be memorized. They will be very large, completely random and securely generated. A standard will be published on their format and exactly how to properly create them.
- The user will no longer choose their own password – the service provider will assign it upon account creation.
- The web browser will connect to a platform key chain service that will synchronize and keep your passwords available on all of your devices.
You might have had two thoughts while reading that. 1) That sounds a lot like API keys that developers use to access web services, doesn't it? Yes, that's exactly right.
And 2) Doesn't the browser already support client authentication with client SSL certificates? There are some similarities, but the big difference is that the existing client SSL authentication comes with all of the baggage of a PKI infrastructure. The implementation of it is really dragging those problems down into the browser space – and I believe accounts for its limited adoption. The approach here is bubbling up a client authentication solution from passwords.
The User Experience
So, what would this look like to users? Here's two thought experiments for the most common cases:
A couple of basic benefits become apparent:
- A user will never see or be prompted for a password again. Evolving passwords will effectively get rid of them.
- Every single password created and used this way will be cryptographically unbreakable. The only way to get your password is to steal it from you.
- The main authentication problem will effectively move from being between service providers and you to being between each of your device's and you. This problem is much easier to solve locally since biometrics become viable. Touch ID anybody?
- Passwords of this type (large and random) can service to both authorize and identify a user. There's no need to have a separate username to identify an account. The password (or hash of it) can identify an account.
One of my metrics for when an idea is feeling "right" is when it has a real-world analog that is tried and true. In this case, think of locks and keys. You might think login pages are the locks and passwords are the keys. But realistically, the analog for what we have today is really a combination lock. You have to remember, manage and protect the combination. Anybody who can obtain it can open the lock.
In this evolved password scenario, key chains and passwords are created, managed and protected like real keys. A real key isn't likely to be properly duplicated by just looking at it and you aren't likely to guess it. It requires possession of the key (or a duplicate of it) in order to gain access.
In other words, passwords change from something you know to something you possess.
It's Not a Startup Opportunity
If you've read this far, you probably have come to the same conclusion I have – this is not a startup opportunity. This is a problem of standardization and adoption by major application, framework and operating system vendors. Since this is an evolutionary approach instead of a whole new method, it's easy to imagine practical and cost-effective steps that could be taken to get there.
I believe whether or not anybody actively plans this outcome, this is where the problem will ultimately evolve to anyway following the current course. But the description presented here isn't a complete solution as authentication is a large and thorny problem. What about password resets if my key chain loses a key? How do I access websites when I'm not on one of my devices? Feel free to chime in with your thoughts in the comments and add to the discussion.
It's not a problem a startup will come along and magically solve. It's our problem to solve right now.